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Thread: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

  1. #41

    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    Quote Originally Posted by Shuhan View Post


    Galaxy, can the arsonists target stumps as well? Rather, if a stump was doused before lynch, will they also catch fire?
    Stumps can be both primed and ignited. The only thing different from trees and stumps is in voting.

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  2. #42
    Schrödinger's Giraffe Wooden_Giraffe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    I'm in agreement with beginning the lynching right away. Arsonists can't kill anyone tonight and probably won't kill anyone until they have at least 2 or 3 primed. The longer we wait to start lynching the more opportunities the arsonists get to prime trees. The 7-2 ratio appears designed to give us enough room for error for this exact purpose.

  3. #43

    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    Quote Originally Posted by Wooden_Giraffe View Post
    I'm in agreement with beginning the lynching right away. Arsonists can't kill anyone tonight and probably won't kill anyone until they have at least 2 or 3 primed. The longer we wait to start lynching the more opportunities the arsonists get to prime trees. The 7-2 ratio appears designed to give us enough room for error for this exact purpose.
    The arsonists would only need 2 doused targets assuming we never lynch someone who was doused.

    Lynch + Dousing -> 8 players, majority 5
    Lynch + Dousing -> 7 players, majority 4
    Lynch + Kill -> 4 players, majority 3, Arsonists win

    As a basic reference.

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  4. #44
    Schrödinger's Giraffe Wooden_Giraffe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    Keep in mind it is also assuming the firefighter fails in both attempts.

  5. #45
    Chief Warden of Yo Mama Jabberwok's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    Quote Originally Posted by Huschel View Post
    The arsonists would only need 2 doused targets assuming we never lynch someone who was doused.

    Lynch + Dousing -> 8 players, majority 5
    Lynch + Dousing -> 7 players, majority 4
    Lynch + Kill -> 4 players, majority 3, Arsonists win

    As a basic reference.
    You know, when you break it down like that, not lynching today would extend LYLO by one day. The benefit is a little more time to feel people out and the slim possibility of a redundant prime, while the cost is a potentially more difficult LYLO on Day 4.

    I think the benefits of lynching today are a little better than not lynching, but it's far from the end of the world if we don't.

    If you get dunked on in the dream, you get dunked on in real life

  6. #46

    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    Quote Originally Posted by Wooden_Giraffe View Post
    Keep in mind it is also assuming the firefighter fails in both attempts.
    True, it's not that straight-forward. Let's say you were an arsonist and we'd be at the point where you could decide to kill two doused players with three Forest players having been lynched already. Would you go for the win or would you wait?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jabberwok View Post
    You know, when you break it down like that, not lynching today would extend LYLO by one day. The benefit is a little more time to feel people out and the slim possibility of a redundant prime, while the cost is a potentially more difficult LYLO on Day 4.

    I think the benefits of lynching today are a little better than not lynching, but it's far from the end of the world if we don't.
    Yes, we'd gain time. But we already have 48 hours. I'm not sure if we need that much more time and we can always extend. Up to three times if I am reading that correctly which would probably be all the days we have or close to it.

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  7. #47
    *Angry Catra noises* Shuhan's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    Huschel: How would you like to base your lynch vote on day one with no info?

    Wooden: How do you feel about lynching inactives.

    Jabberjay: Since you seem to act so casually about either result (lynching/no lynch), I'll ask you the same thing as Wooden.

  8. #48

    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    Quote Originally Posted by Shuhan View Post
    Huschel: How would you like to base your lynch vote on day one with no info?

    Wooden: How do you feel about lynching inactives.

    Jabberjay: Since you seem to act so casually about either result (lynching/no lynch), I'll ask you the same thing as Wooden.
    Gut feelings, I guess. Same as with any game of mafia where one shouldn't have to depend on investigative roles. Of course, we need everybody to give some input before I can even gauge that.

    --- Update From New Post Merge ---

    Actually, add lynching patterns to that. We do still have that.

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  9. #49
    Chief Warden of Yo Mama Jabberwok's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    Quote Originally Posted by Huschel View Post
    Yes, we'd gain time. But we already have 48 hours. I'm not sure if we need that much more time and we can always extend. Up to three times if I am reading that correctly which would probably be all the days we have or close to it.
    Right, that's why I don't think there's much point in not lynching either way. My point is that we don't lose a lynch if we don't do one today (or some other day). I'm not interested in waiting though since there's not much to gain.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shuhan View Post
    Jabberjay: Since you seem to act so casually about either result (lynching/no lynch), I'll ask you the same thing as Wooden.
    I'm not being casual, we should Lynch today. I'm just saying that a no lynch isn't as awful a result as it might be in other games.

    Dead trees are a fire hazard and should be cut down.

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  10. #50
    Schrödinger's Giraffe Wooden_Giraffe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    Quote Originally Posted by Huschel View Post
    True, it's not that straight-forward. Let's say you were an arsonist and we'd be at the point where you could decide to kill two doused players with three Forest players having been lynched already. Would you go for the win or would you wait?
    I don’t quite understand the purpose of the question. Obviously they go for the win, the firefighter succeeding just means they won’t be able to ignite as many as they think.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shuhan View Post
    Wooden: How do you feel about lynching inactives.
    I’d be okay with it, day one doesn’t give us as much to go on so it’s a reasonable fallback option. We’re a long ways from anyone being inactive, only about 3 hours into the day.

  11. #51

    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    Quote Originally Posted by Wooden_Giraffe View Post
    I don’t quite understand the purpose of the question. Obviously they go for the win, the firefighter succeeding just means they won’t be able to ignite as many as they think.
    If the arsonists don't immediately win once they ignite, they more or less wasted a night action and severely cut down the suspect list.

    One more thought about lynching today before I go: if we lynch a tree, we will have a confirmed Forest dweller to give input tomorrow. If we lynch an arsonist, even better. If we lynch the firefighter...um, well...good night.

    --- Update From New Post Merge ---

    (P.S.: I was much more excited about my role before I knew everybody had the same thing)

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  12. #52
    Chief Warden of Yo Mama Jabberwok's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    The firefighter should never claim unless a) they're about to be lynched or b) a less-than-expected number of Trees ignite, since they'll be able to confirm both themselves and another late game.

    If you get dunked on in the dream, you get dunked on in real life

  13. #53

    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    Lynching today is a good idea in my opinion. An 8/9 chance of having a not bad result ain't bad, as as Huschel said a dead player is a confirmed town that can still offer input, so it's not detrimental at this point. We have a much higher chance of it being helpful than it not being. I'm up for lynching someone that my gut says is scum.
    That said, if we lynch the firefighter I'll eat my own foot in rage.

    Honestly took me forever to find the link you were all talking about. If you want to hide a tree, use a forest, I guess.

  14. #54
    The Hermit Shinobu Mahara's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    Okay so im gonna try and post something before my internet tries to tell me I cant connect again.
    Personally I dont even know if this message will send but im typing it out anyway

    As far as I can tell at this stage is Shuhan and I aren't okay with a D1 lynch. Where SUDK and Jabberwok are perfectly okay with it. Wooden is okay with lynching D1 inactives, which i can understand and by no means disagree with it, even if I don't want D1 lynches.

    Never liked the numbers but if people really want my point of view on it
    9 people playing, so i'm gonna go with either 2-3 mafia, 'cause that's generally 1/3rd.
    Not exactly sure if there can be more than one firefighter, and I cant load another webpage to check which is great ;-;

    Seemingly cant give much info due to internet struggle but will try to rectify it in the meantime so I can actually post something worthwhile if at all.. (if it lets me, we'll see i guess)
    Man, it is great to be back home..

  15. #55
    Chief Warden of Yo Mama Jabberwok's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    There's one firefighter, two arsonists, and six trees. It's on the linked page.

    If you get dunked on in the dream, you get dunked on in real life

  16. #56

    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    I would say that lynching today is more beneficial than a no lynch. We either manage to get an arsonist or we still have a confirmed... treenie to talk to us tomorrow whose input we don’t have to doubt.

    I have faith in our firefighter in self preservation.


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  17. #57
    The Hermit Shinobu Mahara's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    But what happens under the circumstance that the firefighter dies D1 or N1. Then we have kinda boned ourselves.
    Not only that but if the firefighter refuses to show themself, and its too late then where do we go from there?


    2 mafia, 1 firefighter means we have a more than likely chance of getting a tree down than a mafia. Unless of course already there is dousing in play. In any event we may get lucky, but i wouldnt go to the effort of saying its more beneficial at this point to down a player without evidence.


    @le crys, you may have faith in the firefighter, but does the firefighter have faith in themself?
    Man, it is great to be back home..

  18. #58
    Chief Warden of Yo Mama Jabberwok's Avatar
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    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    No one can die Night 1. Priming and ignition have to occur on different nights so no night kills can occur until Night 2 at the earliest. And most of us are in agreement that the arsonists will try to kill as many of us as possible instead of one by one, so we probably won't even see a night kill on Night 2.

    If the firefighter gets lynched, that's their own damn fault. Claiming is infinitely preferable to being lynched, especially when they can potentially protect themselves from being killed at night.

    And of course there's a greater chance of lynching a...natureboi?... than an arsonist. That's how the game works. And without any investigative roles or even successive night kills to work off of, we're not going to have much evidence in the first place.

    If you get dunked on in the dream, you get dunked on in real life

  19. #59

    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    @Shinobu: You really need to familiarize yourself with the setup before leading people in unnecessary directions. Here's an incentive:

    Vote Lynch: Shinobu Mahara

    I'll ask you the same question I gave Wooden: Do you think the arsonists would try to go for the win as soon as possible or would they try to be more conservative?@Jabberwok:The firefighter has to target 'one other player'.

    @lecrystal and SUDK: Are you familiar with the hypo cop strategy? Or hypo firefighter in our case. You don't need to be because here is the crux of it:

    Spoiler:
    Hypo claim A hypo claim is where everyone claims the same role, such as cop, and outs a report. This is done so that if the real cop dies, the town knows their report. This strategy is not foolproof, however, because it helps the mafia figure out the real cop in the first place.
    Tell me why we should or shouldn't deploy this strategy.

    @Shuhan: Do you think it is a Forest player's duty to appear not scummy?

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  20. #60

    Default Re: Mafia 57: Keeping it Simple

    With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

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    Huschel

    Not Voting (8): SUDK, SpaceCowboy, Jabberwok, Shuhan, Shinobu Mahara, Kitsune Inferno, Wooden_Giraffe, le Crystal

    A little under 37 hours remain.

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